The coronavirus has had a huge impact on the global world, causing us to stay away from one another, wear masks, and tragically, many people have become ill or died as a result of it. The disease, on the other extreme, has an economic consequence.
Many countries, like Australia, had to be closed, sometimes for weeks or even months. Operations were moved to a virtual interface, the front branch had to remain closed, and many workers were left without an active workplace. So, can coronavirus cause a global outbreak? Looking at Europe, the answer is unquestionably yes. That being said, Investors expect interest rates to rise sooner rather than later.
The inflation during this Pandemic is causing the most concern in the financial markets. It has been confirmed that the hike in global rates, along with persistently high commodity prices and constraints, has generated a rally in inflationary pressures in the main economies.
In fact, given the ongoing inflationary tensions, some central banks have already announced that they will tighten monetary policy in the short term. In addition, in the face of growing inflation, central banks in other emerging countries have chosen to raise their interest rate benchmarks, potentially risking the speed of their economic retrieval.
This pandemic has a definite unfavorable impact on the economy, and finding safe investments in the midst of a pandemic will be difficult. There are fewer pressures, such as the drop in consumption owing to the lockdown and the drop in oil prices, but there are also significant pressures, such as labor cuts and factory closures. All that being said, we must determine which of the factors’ short-term and long-term consequences will take precedence.
Short-Term
There was a little fall in total inflation before the European lockdown began, while huge manufacturing prices have risen significantly due to interruptions in supply chains linked to China, where many production lines were also closed. In the services sector, for example, the drop in inflation indicates that demand is falling faster than supply, despite the fact that the sector is certain to have been adversely impacted by price measuring concerns.
Demand fell in 2020 and will continue to fall in 2021 as more COVID cases result in government limitations on consumer habits. As the number of cases decreases in the spring of 2021, the limits are eased, resulting in an increase in demand. When the economy recovered to the extent predicted by the forecasts, significant businesses such as enterprises struggled to recruit supplies and employees.
Although the pandemic continues to affect several aspects of the global market, such as shipping and land transportation, its effects are expected to subside in the latter half of 2021 and into 2022.
Long-Term
The impact of the coronavirus could have structural implications for the economy. For example, the vulnerability of global value chains, which are extremely prone to extreme shocks and might force corporations to reassess their manufacturing structure’s geographic distribution. Also, given the damage done to potential output, in the long run, as cluster demand improves, the economy may run into capacity limits.
Moreover, at the European extent, the crisis could have a long-term impact on company and customer behaviour, leading to increased caution in income and production choices, or irreversible changes in purchasing basket.
Possible Solution
With all of this in mind, may there be a human resources solution to some of the difficulties that have arisen in the global economy in recent years? The answer is clearly yes; there is a potential solution.
Strategically, it appears that electorates whose financial vulnerability has been revealed by a legislated lockdown will seek reforms to the present economic order, wherein income and wealth have grown so entrenched. Increased salaries and more extensive health coverage, on the other hand, are inflationary. Nevertheless, we can’t deny that in the age of the internet, automation, technology, and price transparency have the ability to keep inflationary forces at rest.
Another approach is to look at estimates from distinct viewpoints by balancing and averaging expectations of various types of inflation. We may create predictive analytics by collecting United States inflation forecasts from many resources, various meanings of inflation, such as CPI and PCE expectations, and different time frames for the coming years. By doing so, we will match and mix these different forecasts for United States inflation.
A forecast can be based on a poll of people’s expectations for pricing in the coming year, while another might be a market-implied five-year inflation forecast for the period starting five years from now. We use the previous mean and standard deviation from 2016 to present to normalize every forecast in relation from its own data series.
Then, to help illustrate skewness, tails, and forecast ranges, we provide a time series of stacked vertically averages. After all of that we can now observe its distributions on medians and ranges.
To summarize, the Corona Virus not only caused inflation, but it also had a significant impact on every part of human life. We don’t know when the pandemic will end, but one thing is certain: we are stronger than the virus, and we will keep fighting every day.
